Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Shoot the puck?


Source: Sabres.com stats and CF analysis. The numbers along the x-axis indicate the game number this season. I removed the y-axis because I felt like it. Any portion of a line above the x-axis favors the Sabres (i.e. if the Sabres had a 10-shot edge over the opponent, then the line is 10 marks above the line).

The Sabres won 3-2 in a shootout against Florida after being out shot 23-29 Monday. This has been happening a lot lately (see graph). Opponents have out shot Buffalo eight out of their last ten games, but the Sabres have won seven of those games -- including, six where they were out shot.

So, what gives? Logic says the more you shoot the more chances you have at scoring. At the same time, quantity doesn't mean quality. The Sabres' defense is likely to give up low quality shots, instead of high quality opportunities, when they have the lead (see the most recent Carolina game). And, when the Sabres are down they seem more likely to shoot and shoot often (see the Dallas game). 

Being out shot and still winning also means your own goaltender is playing well, and there's no doubt Ryan Miller has played very well lately. As Mike Harrington of the The Buffalo News writes about Miller's performance: 
Miller made 27 saves through overtime and stopped both shootout attempts in Monday's 3-2 win over the Florida Panthers. He's 7-1 this month … with eye-popping numbers that show a 1.94 goals-against average and a .942 save percentage.

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